Will U.S. Astronauts Land on the Moon in 2028? Don’t Count on It
- Vineeth Krishnan
- Jun 19
- 6 min read
The U.S. wishes to return astronauts to the Moon by 2028. And I would like to be Superman!
From the outside, 2026 seems to be a great year for American lunar ambitions. The Artemis II mission was launched, carrying astronauts around the Moon — in the process flying further away from Earth than anyone before — and successfully bringing them back. NASA fixed issues from the Artemis I uncrewed mission in 2022, such as the heating up of its re-entry capsule. The Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and the Orion crew capsule both completed highly successful second deployments, the first with a full crew of four on board.
The problem for the U.S. and NASA is that the good news pretty much ends there.
What the sheen of the successful Artemis II mission has briefly camouflaged are the myriad problems which have dogged the program from the very beginning - unrealistic deadlines, unproven technology and an overall lack of synergy, strategy and systemic accountability.
At Sixes & Sevens Since the Start
The U.S. has taken a circuitous route to get to its current 2028 target for a manned lunar mission. In 2010, President Barack Obama set NASA the target of having a manned lunar base by 2028, serving as a stepping stone to a future manned mission to Mars.
However, rather inexplicably, the same administration then cancelled the space shuttle program a year later. While this was expected to free up funds for the Moon to Mars mission, nearly a decade passed before the next manned spaceflight mission was carried out from American soil. During this time, core competencies somewhat eroded and in spite of technological transfer to private industry, huge delays and cost overruns for strategic programs became the norm.
In the interim, the aerospace industrial complex in the U.S. witnessed a dramatic upheaval. Particularly in space launch, established players such as Lockheed Martin and Boeing saw their stock slip dramatically. SpaceX, initially seen as an unwanted outsider who had to approach the judiciary to break the United Launch Alliance (the Lockheed-Boeing consortium) monopoly, emerged by the end of the decade as the preferred partner for space launch programs - including for deep space missions.
Still, the lack of clarity and mismanagement of the Moon to Mars mission was evident in the haphazard nature of the overall architecture which NASA crafted. Making things worse, while NASA has shown they can fly to the Moon and back, the human landing system (HLS) is entirely untested and wholly dependent on private actors delivering on time.
The Human Landing System Conundrum
Lockheed Martin was selected as the lead contractor for the Orion crew capsule. But the same firm’s bid for an integrated lunar lander module - which would have mirrored the Apollo program - was rejected. Instead, this critical task has been entrusted to SpaceX and Blue Origin.
The former has admittedly achieved significant success at space launches and manned spaceflights to the ISS, but the Starship spacecraft which SpaceX plans to use for the lunar mission has barely cracked the edges of space. Causing further unnecessary headaches is the model of the Starship program. It would need multiple (estimates say around 10 at least) launches in quick time to even get the spacecraft to lunar orbit, let alone worry about landing safely on the Moon.
The Starship is not just one or two tests away from carrying out the lunar landing mission. It has to successfully demonstrate multiple new technological capabilities. The mission architecture comprises an integrated, reusable launch vehicle whose upper stage will first enter into Earth orbit. There it will be refueled for the lunar ride by an estimate of 8-10 other Starships (think of these versions as fuel tankers), which means that in-orbit refueling at such a substantially large level needs to be demonstrated for the first ever time.
The refueled, Moon-bound Starship would then fire its engines and travel till lunar orbit - again, something SpaceX has not done before. Once there, the Starship would wait for the Orion capsule carrying the astronauts to rendezvous and dock with it. The astronauts heading to the surface would then transfer to the Starship, descend, land, live on the Starship during their mission, then reboard the same vessel for lift-off from the Moon, before re-docking with the Orion and transferring back for the return trip to the Earth.
Needless to say, none of this has ever been done or tested in any capacity (outside lab simulations and powerpoint slides) by SpaceX.
Nor for that matter has Blue Origin. At least they have one less hurdle in the way - no in-orbit refueling plans there. On the flipside, Blue Origin’s track record reads: one successful space launch and two failures - the rest of its launches have been sub-orbital missions.
Challenges to a Workable HLS Solution by Artemis IV in 2028
SpaceX | ||
New Technologies to Demonstrate |
| SpaceX’s track record means there can be relative confidence regarding points 1, 2 and even 4, 5 and 6. However, in-orbit refueling of that scale is a significant challenge to overcome, as is landing on and lifting off from the Moon, especially if you are doing it for the very first time with the eyes of the world on you with astronauts on board! |
Artemis Missions left before go time | One Artemis III plans to test docking between Orion and Starship and/or Blue Moon in Earth orbit. | Unless SpaceX decides to do a mission on their own, Artemis IV would be the first time a Starship even attempts to fly till the Moon - let alone land and lift off. |
Blue Origin | ||
New Technologies to Demonstrate |
| The likeliest outcome would be Blue Moon’s first mission eventually gets pushed to Artemis VI or VII. |
Artemis Missions left before go time | Two Artemis III - if Blue Moon is ready by then to carry out a docking test in Earth orbit. Artemis IV - While not originally planned to involve Blue Origin in any capacity, possibility of modification exists. | Blue Moon is required to be ready only for the Artemis V mission. |
Hope in the SpaceX IPO?
The slightest sliver of hope in recent weeks has been the hugely successful SpaceX IPO. If Musk decides to spend some of his net wealth and drive a fire under the Starship program with a series of self-funded preparatory missions, maybe, just maybe, Artemis IV could happen in 2028. If I were a betting man, I wouldn’t count on it.
There’s plenty of blame to go around as to why this situation has come up. The appeal of boosting domestic industry is understandable. In hindsight, however, too much disruption at the start may not have been the best idea for such a highly strategic and coveted mission.
The unrealistic expectations of the accelerated Artemis timeline were evident in 2019 when the first Donald Trump administration laid down the target for having a manned mission to the Moon by 2024. Artemis II, scheduled for 2022, took place in 2026. Landing humans on the Moon was meant to be done by Artemis III. Now that has been pushed to Artemis IV. The Obama regime had envisioned a permanent outpost on the Moon by 2028. Now that target has already slipped to 2032.
Since 2010, the U.S. has consistently put the cart before the horse regarding its lunar ambitions. It needs a proverbial 'Hail Mary' to hit the current 2028 human landing target.
Disclaimer: The article expresses the author’s views on the matter and do not reflect the opinions and beliefs of any institution they belong to or of Trivium Think Tank and the StraTechos website.
Vineeth is the Director (Projects) of Trivium Think Tank, Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala, India. He is also an Editor of the StraTechos website.
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